Mr MIKE BAIRD (Manly) [3.59 p.m.]: The Opposition opposes the motion and I shall move an amendment to it. We have anticipated this budget day for a considerable period. Unfortunately, the people of New South Wales have been let down. I move that the motion be amended by leaving out all words after "That" with a view to inserting instead:

this House condemns the Government for delivering a 2009-10 State budget that contains more fantasy than fact.

The Treasurer said that this was a true Labor budget. He is exactly right. It is true Labor in that it lacks credibility. One cannot believe anything that is in it, and I have had the opportunity to read only quickly the key parameters. I look forward to reading it tonight in much more detail, but there is enough evidence to indicate that it is all spin and all about platitudes. This is supposed to be a budget about jobs; we heard many words about jobs. If that were really the case, we would say, "Well done." But that is not the case because when one looks beyond the covers—the new logo is terrific—it is a major disappointment for the people of New South Wales. Why? It is a story about the financial incompetence of this Government over the past 14 years.

One must be prepared for every economic cycle, but we are not prepared for this economic onslaught. Without Kevin Rudd over the next four years the underlying deficit for the people of this State is $8 billion, which is increasing debt per household rapidly. At the same time the budget is a story about higher unemployment figures. Unemployment in this State is higher than the national average. I shall refer to that in more detail later. A highlight of this budget is that the reality of the forward projections and the lack of credibility in some forecasts suggest that the position may well be worse than an $8 billion underlying deficit for the people of this State.

New South Wales has had an unemployment rate above the national average since September 2005. Therefore, it came as quite a surprise that one of the first projections in the budget is that the jobless figure will drop below the national figure in 2009-10, and not just by a little. The New South Wales budget papers forecast an unemployment rate of 7.75 per cent, compared with the Federal Government's estimate in its budget of 8.25 per cent—a difference of 0.5 per cent. What would that do to the numbers presented today? How can there be such turnaround? Hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk in this State. If we do not do them justice by doing the hard work and predicting the real position, I believe there will be no turnaround. It is fantasy to say otherwise.

Also confirmed today, even though we did not hear it in the Treasurer's Speech, was that this State is in recession. That is right. We said it, but it has been denied that this State is in recession. While the rest of the country is growing, New South Wales is contracting at a rapid rate. The budget confirmed today that we are in recession. Both gross State product and State final demand are negative for 2009-10. The people of this State know that New South Wales is in recession while the rest of the country grows. Kevin Rudd has bailed us out.

I have spoken about the underlying deficit of $8 billion, but I refer now to expenses because that is where we get to the nitty-gritty of all that is wrong with this Labor budget. One reason New South Wales is struggling is its ongoing failure to align expenditure growth with revenue growth. We heard how the mini-budget was an important priority to regain control of the State's expenses. No wonder the ratings agencies continue to talk about that. I shall refer further to that shortly. The ratings agencies say that one reason the triple-A rating has been at risk for the past few years is expenses. The first page of the budget statement declares in part that we have "a five point Better Services and Value Plan to improve service delivery and contain the growth in expenses. The Plan maintains the wages policy public sector staff freeze, amalgamates [services]", and then states, "line-by-line audits of agency activities and performance reviews of state owned corporations" will be done to review expenses. The joke is that Joe Tripodi probably will head the committee to determine the matter. It is not independence; it is the Government's internal approach, "By the way, we've got to be seen to be doing something about expenses."

In 2006-07 growth in expenses was 7.9 per cent, in 2007-08 it was 5.7 per cent, and in 2008-09 it was 8 per cent notwithstanding that six months ago the mini-budget stated that it was supposed to be 5 per cent. Where are the savings in the mini-budget? What has been delivered? What has not been delivered? We need to hear accountability from those opposite. Next year expenses are supposed to grow to 7.6 per cent and then we heard the Treasurer say we are going to be back in the black. It will be a modern-day miracle if expense growth goes back to 2.8 per cent. No-one believes those figures. No-one believes we are going back into the black. We are in the red, and as Split Enz said, "I see red". I see red for a long time. That is not the sort of budget to produce. It has no credibility.

Standard and Poor's admits there is a linkage in support from the Federal Government, but gives us a strong warning. If Joe Tripodi were in the House I would tell him that he carries the triple-A rating on his back. I understand that his attempt to sell the electricity assets is causing increasing concern in the Labor caucus, as it should for the people of this State. Over the past 48 hours I have heard from two investment banks, one law firm and a bidder for those assets that that transaction is in all sorts of trouble. The triple-A rating is now hinged on an electricity sale overseen by Joe Tripodi. On his international roadshow I understand no material interest was shown in the sale. We have a budget that puts to the people of New South Wales a plan that does nothing more than put us into the red for the foreseeable future and puts the problems off until tomorrow. Today the Government has taken money for its own purposes and not looked after the interests of the State.

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